Today's grandaddy of them all in Pasadena is supposed to be the offensive onslaught Ohio State cannot handle with the powerful and speedy Oregon Duck defense. Sportsbook.com has the Ducks listed as a four point favorite and 72% of the public is picking the Ducks to win this game. Furthermore Ohio State is missing three key non-starting contributors in their line up. So it appears Ohio State is looking at their 4th straight BCS beat down.
Unless you analyze the game.
Oregon will be playing their 4th game today on natural grass. Oregon needed some big special teams plays to out duel UCLA the last time the Ducks traveled to Pasadena. The first half of their game with the Bruins it appeared anything could happen and UCLA could hold serve on their home field but the Ducks Kenjon Barner returned the 2nd half kick off 100 yards and followed that up with a returned interception for a touchdown that made up the difference against a team recently struggled to defeat Temple in the Washington DC bowl game.
The Ducks biggest win on grass happened in Tucson, Arizona against the Arizona Wildcats in what was the game of the year in college football with the Ducks prevailing 44-41 in double overtime. The Ducks needed 17 fourth quarter points to catch the Wildcats which on paper looks impressive. Problem here is Arizona had a horrible 4th quarter defense this year gave up 116 fourth quarter and overtime points including 15 against Washington leading to a 4th quarter collapse, 15 to Oregon State in a near 4th quarter comeback, 14 to rival Arizona State leading to another near 4th quarter comeback, 9 to California in a 4th quarter collapse and the big one 30 4th quarter and overtime points in the loss to Oregon. So Oregon's Tucson grass win isn't all that impressive considering they will be facing a much more stout defense that has averaged giving up 12 points a game all season.
Oregon's only other loss on grass they were manhandled by Toby Gearhart and the Stanford offensive line. Stanford hung 51 points on the Ducks while yielding 254 yards on the ground to the Cardinal. Well the Ohio State offensive line is every bit as physical as Stanford's offensive line if not more physical. Everyone knows fast players look fast and scary on the artificial turf but on grass the speed is not quite there plus Ohio State's defense will be the best the Ducks LaMichael James will have played all year. So it's not so much what the Ducks alleged speed burners will do against the Buckeye slow footed behemoths because when you break down the game there is nothing slower on the field than the Oregon offensive linemen who will face a major problem with the Buckeye defensive line that will force Duck quarterback Jeremiah Masoli to become a passer more than a runner.
Forget the 4 points with the Buckeyes. Take the money line on this game as the Buckeyes will put a Stanford like rushing attack on the Ducks and the Ducks will see the best defense they have faced all season in Ohio State. If you have any questions about overall competition which seems to haunt Ohio State. So far this season the Buckeyes has defeated Navy and Wisconsin two bowl team winners while the Ducks have padded their win total with big bowl losers in Arizona, Oregon State, and California all teams that lost by better than two scores in their bowl games.
Final note, Ohio State has lost their last three BCS bowl games. Two of the losses were in the national championship game the toughest game to play. They were blown out in the first half by both Florida and LSU before playing even ball in the 2nd half of both games. Last year's Fiesta Bowl loss to Texas was caused by a strong Ohio State effort and poor tackling by the Longhorns. That's right if Dan "Boom" Herron does not break the tackle in the Buckeyes 4th quarter go ahead touchdown drive with less than two minutes Colt McCoy never gets on the field assuming Aaron Petry kicks the game winning chip shot as time runs out at the Buckeyes celebrate the win. But that is not what happened but it's something to note that the Bucks lost a game they had won and were not blown out. Past year's games mean very little other than one team has been on the big stage win or lose.
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